December 29, 2013

What a year! 2013 was the best performing year for the portfolio since its inception. The last two quarterly blogs were delayed as I am always willing to defer the writing of quarterly blogs in favor of spending the time required for an existing investment in the portfolio or for the analysis of a promising new investment. As a result, these blogs occasionally get delayed, particularly, as one might expect, in a year as interesting as 2013. The Spotlight have change to the Potential Move in Long-Term Interest Rates as opposed to the Eurozone crisis and China’s hard landing.

On risk adjusted basis the portfolio outperformed all its benchmark for 2013, even more satisfying the portfolio has never experienced a down quarter since inception and has adequate hedging in place for any black swan events.

 

Portfolio Update

During July 2013, I established and added to positions in all of the major Canadian Banks. Canadian Banks hit a 52 week low during the beginning of July as increases in longer-term bond yields have led to many questions around the potential impact of higher interest rates on financial services companies. I believe that the profitability of both banks and lifecos would benefit from a higher interest rate environment for reasons that are both direct and indirect, assuming that higher interest rates are experienced across the term structure and reflect an improved economic outlook.

 

Higher interest rates impact on Banks and Lifecos

I added to Canadian Banks as I do not believe that either sector is positioned to benefit materially more than the other from such a scenario. Lifecos used to be much more exposed than banks to movements in macro factors, but have greatly reduced their exposures, to the benefit of their earnings volatility. I do not believe that the larger banks are positioned materially differently from one another, but banks will continue to increase their dividends annually as opposed to Lifecos.

Banks would benefit from a higher interest rate environment for reasons that are both direct and indirect, assuming that higher interest rates are the result of a stronger economic outlook. Direct positive impacts would include improved net interest income margins and reduced defined benefit liabilities. Indirect impacts would include higher wealth management and capital markets revenues, loan growth and credit quality. Banks are most exposed to short-term to medium-term (i.e. 5 years) interest rates, and an increase in the interest rates they are exposed to, if it materialized, would impact net interest income margins over a multi-year period rather than immediately.

While it is difficult to determine how much margin upside there might be to a higher interest rate environment, I believe that the banks that would see the largest increase in net income from higher net interest income margins (i.e.ignoring indirect impacts) are those with more exposure to retail banking and weaker efficiency ratios. The two smaller banks (Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian Bank) would benefit more than the larger banks.

Paychex

 

The top performer for the portfolio this year was Paychex, up over 50% year to date. Paychex provides payroll and integrated human resource and employee benefits solutions predominantly for small and mid-sized businesses almost entirely in the United States. The firm has 12,500 employees and is based in Rochester, N.Y. and was formed through the consolidation of 17 payroll processing companies in 1979. It has been one of the most successful human resources outsourcing firms in the United States. The minimal amount of capital required for operations and the firm's significant competitive advantages have allowed it to produce returns on invested capital that have averaged 70% over the past 10 years. 

Switching from one payroll processing vendor to another is a very difficult task, and customers' unwillingness to do so has allowed Paychex to build a relatively sticky client base. This inelasticity has enabled the firm to raise prices annually and expand profits. Strong scalability has also allowed the firm to be price competitive without feeling significant margin pressure.

Upside scenario

Upside potential assumes acceleration in revenue growth driven by 1) improving US labor markets, 2) a higher interest rate environment, both of which are well underway in the United States.

Outlook 2014:

It seems like we’ve been talking about the low-return world forever, but it keeps getting delayed. Low returns didn’t materialize in 2013, and U.S. equity markets are trading at fairly full valuations. I still think risk will be rewarded and well-structured portfolios can achieve realistic investment goals. 2014 will begin as 2013 did with the added twist that the Fed seems set to begin the process of withdrawing from money printing during the year. We can’t be sure of the consequences, but extra volatility seems a good bet.

The signs of economic healing in Europe and Japan along with the improved growth outlook for the U.S. should keep equity markets moving slightly higher with some fits and starts over significant tax policy changes in Japan and still a less than perfectly unified Europe which will create occasional tension.

First Quarter 2013 Update!

The quarterly blog is a little bit later than usual as I am always willing to defer the writing of the quarterly blog in favor of spending the time required for an existing investment in the portfolio or for the analysis of a promising new investment. As a result, these blogs occasionally get delayed, particularly, as one might expect, in the first quarter of 2013.

On risk adjusted basis the portfolio outperformed the major market indexes  including the S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX,  A Wealth Preservation Index,  and a North American Balanced Index for the first quarter of 2013. The relative outperformance versus the Index can be attributed to asset allocation and security selection. Asset allocation contributed mainly to the  outperformance,  I decided to overweight US stocks since 2012,  current positions include COCA COLA CO, PAYCHEX INC, MCDONALDS , ELI LILLY & CO, PROCTER GAMBLE CO,  Johnson & Johnson and MERCK & CO INC to name a few. From an asset allocation perspective, I am maintaining a significant underweight in bonds.

Eli Lilly and Co

 

Eli Lilly and Co. is a leading maker of prescription drugs, offering a wide range of treatments for neurological disorders, diabetes, cancer and other conditions. Animal health products are also sold. Foreign drug sales accounted for about 46% of total revenues in 2012. Based on positive clinical developments in several important pipeline assets targeting diabetes, cancer and Alzheimer's disease, the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index and most of the Big Pharma stocks over the last year. Lilly recently filed ramucirumab for stomach cancer, and empagliflozin for type 2 diabetes, with three more Phase 3 assets to be submitted later this year. Relative to its size, Lilly holds a disproportionately high amount of potential blockbusters in Phase III development.  I continue to like the stock due to a robust catalysts profile relative to peers, pipeline optionality , and reasonable valuation.

 Portfolio Update

During the quarter, I eliminated the portfolio position in Chorus Aviation and added to the portfolio position in Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc.

 Chorus Aviation

Chorus Aviation is Air Canada's regional carrier providing domestic and transborder flights to Canadian and U.S. destinations. Chorus Aviation was formed in January 2001 when Air Canada combined its four regional carriers into one. Chorus Aviation operates as a separate business with its own management and union contracts..

 

I eliminated the portfolio position in Chorus Aviation in early January and took some modest profits including reinvested dividends.  Even though Chorus continues to generate healthy cash generation and sufficient free cash flow to more than adequately fund the $0.15 quarterly dividend, I became concern about  the upcoming decision in the arbitration relating to the benchmarking provisions within its Capacity Purchase Agreement  with Air Canada and decided to take a modest profit after a run up in the stock in January 2013.

2012 Yearend Update!

The quarterly blog is a little bit later than usual as I am always willing to defer the writing of the quarterly blog in favor of spending the time required for an existing investment in the portfolio or for the analysis of a promising new investment. As a result, these blogs occasionally get delayed, particularly, as one might expect, in a year as interesting as 2012.

On a risk adjusted basis the portfolio outperformed the major market indexes for 2012, even more satisflying the portfolio has never experienced a down quarter since inception and has adequate hedging in place as uncertainty regarding the fiscal cliff, the Eurozone crisis and China’s growth potential move back into focus.

Portfolio Update

 

During the quarter, I established positions in McDonald’s Corporation and Caterpillar both at or near its 52 week low.

 McDonald’s Corporation

 

McDonald’s Corporation is now 1.83% of the overall portfolio. McDonald’s makes money in principally two ways: first, by collecting an approximate 14%+ share of its franchisees’ revenues for the use of McDonald’s brand, a business coined “Brand McDonald’s” and second, by generating operating profits from a portfolio of company-operated stores. 

McDonald’s brand royalty business is one of the greatest businesses in the world because it generates an annuity-like revenue stream which can grow without the requirement for meaningful investment of capital from the company. Because the company’s revenue share comes from more than 32,000 different stores spread around the globe, it is an inherently stable, currency-hedged, inflation-protected stream of cash flow.  

Another underlying strength is McDonald's cohesive franchisee and affiliate system, which collectively operates 80% of the chain. This structure provides the firm an annuity like stream of rent and royalties even during challenging economic times with minimal corresponding capital needs. As a result, McDonald's generates excellent free cash flow and returns on invested capital in the mid- to high teens. These results are even more impressive when considering that the firm owns 45% of the land for its restaurants (more than $5 billion in land assets), meaning that the returns are generated on a higher invested capital base than most franchised restaurant chains.

 Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar Inc. is now 1% of the overall portfolio and is the world's dominant maker of construction and mining equipment, as well as a leading producer of diesel and gas engines, industrial turbines (essentially jet engines that power equipment and generate electricity), and locomotives. No competitor can match the breadth of Caterpillar's product line. Cat’s goal is simple: Ensure that customers make more money using Cat equipment than using competitors' equipment. Though Cat equipment generally costs more than anyone else's, the model requires it to be the least expensive over its lifetime, factoring in purchase price, maintenance costs, operating costs, uptime, life expectancy, and resale value. Dealers are key to these economics. A machine that breaks down can halt an entire job, and getting back under way in two hours rather than 48 hours means big money. Large, successful dealers that carry lots of parts, maintain skilled technicians, and move fast are thus a major selling point, and Cat's dealer network is the undisputed best in the business. Big, strong dealers help Cat sell the most machines; all those machines in the field bring dealers lots of revenue from parts and service, so much that they can survive in years when they don't sell any new machines at all; and that financial stability enables dealers to grow bigger, attracting even more customers, and build a larger base of machines that need to be serviced.

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Equities, while volatile, have marched higher over the past three-year recovery. Bonds, on the other hand, are almost pricing in a recession with 10-year yields at 1.73% in the US and 1.80% in Canada. Fed buying, deleveraging and a lack of investor confidence continue to put downward pressure on yields. While this disconnect between equities and bonds can be resolved in either of two ways, we believe there is greater risk owning bonds at these yields. From an asset allocation perspective, I am maintaining a significant underweight in bonds.

 

I decided to reduce my Canadian equity exposure in 2012 to source the cash. The European recession, slowdown in China and softness in many other emerging markets does not stack up well for commodity-focused markets like ours. Easy monetary policy has kept commodity prices elevated, but this does not substitute for real end-demand growth.

Third Quarter 2012 Update!

Third Quarter 2012 Update!

 The portfolio for the third quarter was up 2.56%, on a risk adjusted basis the equity position was 39.6% and the cash position in the portfolio was a very low risk adjusted level of 49.5%. The portfolio has outperformed all indexes  ( A Wealth Preservation Hedge Fund,  The S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX and a Canadian Monthly Income Fund) it tracks and has never lost money since inception in 2010!

 

I continue to underweight the energy sector which is approximately 4.85% of the overall portfolio compare to a weight of 26% for the S&P/TSX index.  As poorly as energy underlying equities have performed lately, the underlying equities may fared even worse in the next year with the global slowdown!

 

I initiated a position in Great-West Lifeco. Generally I am enthused by the low valuation, paying 0.9x to 1.0x book value for expected ROEs of 11% to 12%, make the lifecos cheap. Positively, Great-West is above Canadian lifeco peers given lower expected earnings volatility and higher expected ROE (16.3% in 2013) and is less exposed to movements in equity markets and interest rates than its lifeco peers.

 

 Lifecos’ shares exhibit greater volatility (up and down) than banks’ as their earnings and capital positions are affected more materially by movements in equity markets and interest rates, particularly for Manulife, Sun Life,

and Industrial Alliance. Those potential impacts dwarf the impact of sales or near-term management actions on earnings and capital, and as such we continue to expect moves in interest rates and equities to be the primary drivers of share prices. The near-term overweight/underweight call comes down to individual investors’ views on equity markets and interest rates.

 

 Lifecos trade at low P/B valuations, which we believe is appropriate rather than making lifecos cheap given ROE expectations of 11% to 12% for three of the lifecos (Sun Life, Industrial Alliance, and Manulife). For us to be more positive on those three lifecos, we would have to look for reasons to believe that core ROE will exceed 11% to 12% or that equities and/or bond yields are about to rally significantly. Investing in those three lifecos as a play on higher interest rates and equities only makes sense, for investors looking for annual equity market returns in excess of 8% and annual interest rate increases in excess of 40 to 75 basis points. I have a Above Average Risk rating on Sun Life, Industrial Alliance, and Manulife due to sensitivity to interest rates and we believe that a prolonged period of low interest rates, or a decline in interest rates, could cause reserve additions as part of future annual reserve reviews.

 

On the other hand Great-West remains less exposed to movements in equity markets and long-term interest rates than its peers. Great-West’s sensitivity to equity market movements is lower and mostly fee-driven. The decline in bond yields since Q3/12 began, is also not as potentially negative for Great-West’s near-term net income outlook as it would be for its peers. We are less concerned about movements in macro factors—particularly interest rates and equity markets—having a major impact on our earnings estimates for Great-West. The lower exposure to interest rate movements is driven by tighter asset/liability duration management, which has kept the company less exposed to longer duration products. The lower exposure to movements in equity markets is a reflection of the company having introduced GMWB variable annuities later than peers and therefore being exposed to a much more conservative segregated fund/variable annuity portfolio.

 

Great-West has a more highly rated investment portfolio than its peers but more exposed to Europe, given the company’s business mix, although the majority of that exposure is in the UK. Isolating the peripheral European countries, exposure to banks and other financial institutions’ bonds (Ireland, Italy, and Spain) is 0.4% of invested assets. Additionally, approximately 0.2% of the company’s invested assets are in bonds issued by the Governments of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. The company has no exposure left to the Greek Government or Greek banks, and no exposure to Portuguese banks.

 

Midyear June 2012 Update!

Midyear 2012 has drawn to a close as one of the more difficult years for natural resource investing in recent

memory.  The main drivers of this commodity sell-off were slowing growth in both China and the U.S.

and, even more critically, an accelerating deterioration in Europe.

 As of June 30, 2012 the S&P/TSX  index is  down 1.5% with the Energy sector down over 8% continuing the underperformance of resource equities.  As poorly as gold and oil have performed lately, the underlying equities have fared even worse!

For the Period Ending June 30, 2012 the portfolio I managed has outperformed and has shown positive returns mainly due to my underweight in the energy sector which is approximately 6 % of my overall portfolio compare to a weight of 26% for the S&P/TSX  index.

To put this into perspective the top two largest  holdings of my portfolio are Coca-Cola (4.3 % weighting) and Merck  (3.4 % weighting) is greater than  my total energy weighting and both have outperformed .  Coca-Cola is  up 73.09 % and Merck is up 23.22  % since I added both to the portfolio.  Last week  the shares of Merck jumped 4% in early trading Thursday, the day after it said it was ending a key Phase III clinical trial for its osteoporosis drug candidate odanacatib ahead of schedule because the drug had been shown to be highly effective.

The Focus Stock  for the month is Coca-Cola, which carries S&P Capital IQ’s highest investment  recommendation of 5-STARS, or strong buy.  Coca-Cola, based in Atlanta, GA, is the world’s largest producer of soft drink concentrates and syrups, as well as the world’s biggest producer of juice and juice-related products. The company also owns or has majority stakes in 97 beverage bottling or canning plants located around the world, which are consolidated into the Bottling Investments operating segment. Coca Cola operates in more than 200 different countries, I see that providing a steady runway for future growth as well as strong opportunities to increase per capita consumption.

 According to data from the company, 2011 global per capita consumption averaged 92 servings per year, with the United States coming in at over 400. This compares to the developed world average of 267, the developing average of 251 (including Brazil at 230 and Turkey at 173) and an emerging market average of just 31 (including Russia at 73, China at 38 and India at 12). Moreover, I think the company’s global infrastructure positions it well to grow its both carbonated and non-carbonated beverage brands. Today, the company licenses and markets more than 500 different brands. In 1997, it had only five brands exceeding $1 billion in retail sales. By 2011, that number had grown to 15, and I expect more brands, particularly in the non-carbonated arena, to join that group as the company expands distribution of its newer brands into more countries.

Moreover, I  still find the valuation of the shares compelling, trading in the lower half of KO’s historical average with a dividend yield approaching 3%

WEALTH PRESERVATION IS A PRIORITY !

May was one of the more difficult months for natural resource investing in recent memory ! Crude oil (WTI) finished the month down 18% to a seven-month low – one has to go back to October 2008 to see a drop of similar magnitude. The main drivers of this commodity sell-off were slowing growth in both China and the U.S. and, even more critically, an accelerating deterioration in Europe.

In an environment where we would have expected the world to increasingly gravitate towards gold as a safe haven, investors have instead continued to rush into U.S. Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds, where 10-year maturities are now offering record low yields of 1.559% and 0.819% respectively, despite considerable new issuance.

What to do?

My fund remains heavily weighted towards cash and dividend-paying companies. I believe that North American interest rates are likely to remain low for a surprisingly long time. As such, good quality high-yielding equities should remain an attractive investment – providing investors with regular income.

The Opportunity

Central banks are facing rising political pressure to step up money printing efforts in Europe, China, Japan, and the U.S. The accelerating European bank run in particular is increasing the odds of a massive ECB response at any moment. Given the scope of the threat, we would not rule out an announcement of a globally coordinated initiative.

The obvious direct beneficiary from increased money printing is gold, which effectively acts as a fixed supply “currency” (store of value) relative to depreciating paper currencies.

At a time when massive money printing by the world’s central banks is not only inevitable, but potentially imminent, we believe that gold should be viewed in its traditional role as a store of value rather than just one more “risk-on” trade.

In order to mitigate downside risk and generate income (above 10% currently), I have exposure to a covered call option strategy on 33% of the securities of my Gold Portfolio. The level of covered call option writing and income vary based on market volatility and other factors.

Sell Encana Corporation

I attended the Encana AGM a few weeks ago. I have attended the Encana AGMs the last couple of years and my first impression is that they have made it very difficult to attend their AGMs with security screening exceeding any other company AGMs I have attended.

They also schedule the AGM at the exact same time and date as Cenovus which made it difficult as a shareholder to attend - most shareholders owns shares of both Encana and Cenovus since the split and the Encana AGM was not well attended by shareholders.

On September 10, 2009, Encana reignited plans to proceed with the split of the corporation into two independent energy companies. An integrated oil company Cenovus Energy was created, which split off EnCana's oil sands and downstream assets. Post its corporate split, Encana's estimated upstream production is roughly 100% natural gas focused - a very bad move with gas prices below $2!

 

In my view with the lack of any concrete plan, Encana’s success with material liquids growth is not optional given its dry gas weighting, time is not a luxury the company can necessarily afford for gas prices to recover. Encana may need to consider an oil or liquids weighted acquisition that would augment its organic prospects with a more immediate and concentrated development fairway which plays to its execution strength. My rating is a Sell!